IEA says hopes of higher, stable oil prices could be dashed quickly

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"With the United States accounting for 80% of the increase in global oil supply to 2025 and maintaining near-term downward pressure on prices, the world's consumers are not yet ready to say goodbye to the era of oil", the IEA report stated.

"Solar is forging ahead in global power markets as it becomes the cheapest source of electricity generation in many places", said Fatih Birol, executive director of the IEA.

The benchmark report notes that with renewable energy technologies nipping at the heels of oil, natural gas and coal and a global push by policymakers to cut carbon emissions, juxtaposed with near-insatiable demand from a global population that will hit 9 billion within a few decades and the rise of the USA as the world's largest oil and gas producer, the energy sector is experiencing disruptive times.

In what could come as grim news for officials attending global climate talks in Bonn, Germany, the IEA expects oil demand to keep rising until 2040.

Traders said they were cautious about betting on further price rises. Scientists just this week said that emissions of the heat-trapping gas rose this year after three years of not growing.

The International Energy Agency said in its market report for November that recent trends toward balance were supported by lower production from OPEC members like Iraq and Venezuela, which may be temporary.

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Global energy needs will rise more slowly than in the past but still expand by 30 per cent between today and 2040, the equivalent of adding another China and India.

Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman said in October that the deal was working and demand was moving closer to the level of supply, but extraordinary action was needed for further rebalancing.

It kept its estimate for this year at 3.08 million bpd.

"The reality is that even after some modest reductions to growth, non-OPEC production will follow this year's 700,000 bpd growth with 1.4 million bpd of additional production in 2018 and next year's demand growth will struggle to match this", it's monthly report read.

The U.S. shale surge could also mean an era of lower-for-longer oil prices.

Fitch Ratings said in its 2018 oil outlook that it assumed 2018 "average oil prices will be broadly unchanged year-on-year and that the recent price recovery with Brent exceeding $60 per barrel may not be sustained".

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