My big questions after USDA record yield numbers for corn

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Corn carryover on September 1, 2018, was forecast at 2,487 million bus, up 147 million bus, or 6%, from October and up 8% from 2,295 million bus in 2017. This means the 2017 corn crop would be 14.6 billion bushels, almost 300 million bushels larger than expected just last month. If that comes to fruition, that would stand as the best average yield in the state since 2010, when it was 151.0 bushels per acre. "This year's record of 175.4 bu/ac reflects an approximate 20% increase in yield in just over 10 years", said Renewable Fuels Association President and CEO Bob Dinneen.

Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) grains closed higher on Friday with corn and soybeans bouncing from previous lows triggered by raised yield estimates.

The average soybean yield was forecast at 49.5 bushels an acre based on November 1 conditions, unchanged from October and down 2.5 bushels from 2016. China corn is cut 500,000 tons to 2.5 million. Harvested area was forecast at a record 89.5 million acres, unchanged from October and up 8 percent from 2016. NOTE: All figures listed in billions of bushels.

The USDA production and yield estimates all were above average trade expectations of 14,323 million bushels and 172.3 bushels an acre for corn and 4,404 million bushels and 49.2 bushels an acre for soybeans, respectively. Argentina and Brazilian production was left "unchanged".

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"Today's USDA report caught the trade leaning the wrong way for soybeans, which is why the market is pulling back today even though USDA lowered its production and carryout estimates slightly", Knorr says.

Globally, wheat supplies are down fractionally, with global use fractionally higher. The projected average farm price for 2017/18 held steady at $4.40 to $4.80 per bushel.

The U.S.D.A. forecast soybean carryover on September 1, 2018, at 425 million bus. "That's actually in line with what my models have been showing, though I didn't expect the agency to make a change yet".

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